Does the center of gravity of the hottest glass mo

2022-08-11
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Does the center of gravity of the glass move down in the later stage

the inventory of glass spot market continues to increase slightly. The price of central China factory has recently experienced a price reduction of about 40 yuan/ton, and the prices in other places are generally stable; Currently, it is still in the traditional off-season, and the spot price will remain weak and volatile as a whole before August; Sha

River spot at present, the futures have significantly increased the spot price. Even considering that September is the peak season contract, the current futures premium has also been on the high side. However, due to the recent problems of the whole industry and the long loading test pieces, the strong performance of the product market, especially the black series, has supported the glass price to a certain extent, making the glass continue to be supported at 1350

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this year, the overall spot market exceeded expectations, especially in the off-season in June, which strengthened the confidence of the factory. However, recently, with the increase of such expansion, the increase of production lines and the concern of downstream environmental protection, market confidence has declined. Next, the cumulative inventory situation will not only affect the short-term spot price, but also affect the market's expectations for the whole second half of the year

since the middle of June, the glass market has held regional coordination meetings around the "price protection and growth promotion" in some regions. It is understood that central China, South China and Northwest China took the lead. In the view of industry insiders, the so-called "price protection" means maintaining the current profit level. Compared with previous years, the profit level of the glass industry in the first half of this year should be at a high level in recent years. Even after the off-season of the Spring Festival, the overall profit level did not decline significantly

since June, with the arrival of the off-season demand, glass manufacturers hope to stimulate the market atmosphere by "maintaining price and growth" at the regional coordination meeting, especially to boost the confidence of downstream traders, so as to spend the off-season of June and July. In fact, in the face of the recent "price protection" phenomenon in the glass market, the market has shown two attitudes. One is a relatively positive and optimistic attitude. Enterprises are willing to actively protect prices. On the one hand, it shows their optimism for the future market, on the other hand, it reflects that the current inventory pressure of enterprises is not large, which is conducive to maintaining a high outlook in the glass industry. The other is more pessimistic, thinking that the price trend reflects the changes in supply and demand, which is particularly important for the glass market. Due to the different production and sales conditions of glass enterprises, their expectations for the future market are also different. If the demand declines significantly in the off-season, under the market-oriented mechanism, it is bound to lead to some enterprises with high inventory pressure to take the lead in reducing prices, and enterprise price protection will lose its significance

the current time point is a key point for the glass market. At the "end of the off-season and before the peak season" stage, any disturbance will affect the mood of the whole market. The spot market will still perform well in the second half of the year under the influence of many positive factors, such as low inventories of production enterprises, the approaching traditional peak season and low financial pressure of production enterprises

in the middle of July, the imbalance between production and sales in the whole glass market will continue. The manufacturer will not reduce the price openly, but for some big customers, there will be some preferential policies; In the medium and long term, the manufacturers are also bullish. Based on the fact that the national inventory is not very high and the early price is low, the manufacturers reduce some shipments and push some goods down to September. The result of capacity utilization and capacity imbalance is that the market grabs goods and prices continue to rise

at present, glass enterprises in various regions are optimistic about the future, and the actual situation also proves that the manufacturer's inventory is indeed low. Although shipments in some regions have slowed down due to weather and storage quality problems, there will still be a rush for goods in the market after the dog days. However, when the market expectations are consistent, whether it will follow the expectations is also a question mark in the hearts of many industry insiders. The risk points of the market in the second half of the year mainly lie in the supply side: first, the sharp growth of the production capacity of cold repair and resumption, and second, the extension of cold repair of the production line when the kiln age expires, both of which will aggravate the deterioration of the supply and demand situation in the glass market. In addition, in terms of upstream fuel, coal prices may rise sharply in the second half of the year under the influence of policies, seasonality and other factors, thus raising glass production costs

in the later stage, it should be noted that the leading glass and other building materials products are different, and they are highly dependent on the real estate market. With the deepening of the national regulation of real estate policies, inflection points are inevitable in the future; Second, since the second half of last year, the growth rate of glass production capacity and output has been relatively fast, resulting in a year-on-year increase in effective output, and the whole batch cannot be delivered in a relatively large range; Third, excessive profits have accelerated the production of some production lines; Fourth, since the beginning of this year, the export market has decreased slightly, and some colored glass has been converted to white glass, resulting in an increase in supply; Fifth, environmental protection supervision and other factors caused the shutdown of glass deep processing enterprises in some periods, reducing glass consumption; Sixth, the price of raw materials such as soda ash still has some room to rise in the later stage. These are all potential risk points in the future market

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